How will Man City's crunch showdown against Arsenal impact the title race? Supercomputer reveals who is most likely to win the Premier League based on Sunday's results


Manchester City and Arsenal will go head-to-head in a huge clash on Sunday afternoon that could have massive ramifications for the Premier League title race. 

The Gunners currently sit top of the league table, level on 64 points with Liverpool, but only ahead on goal difference. Jurgen Klopp’s side will be hoping for either a draw or a Man City win to help them regain their standing at the top of the league table, with the Reds set to take on Brighton at Anfield this weekend. 

City trail the Merseyside outfit in third place by a point and will be hoping to exact revenge on the Gunners following their 1-0 defeat at the Emirates stadium earlier this season.  

With each team set to play 10 more games this season, Sunday’s fixtures could prove pivotal in the title race, with Opta’s supercomputer revealing the permutations that both matches can have on who wins the Premier League this season. 

Guardiola called the showdown 'a final' with there being massive permutations riding on the match

The Gunners currently sit top on goal difference but are level on 64 points with Liverpool

Pep Guardiola (left) and Mikel Arteta (right) will go head to head in the dugout on Sunday

While Arsenal travel to the Etihad for the match, Liverpool will host Brighton at Anfield

While Arsenal travel to the Etihad for the match, Liverpool will host Brighton at Anfield 

Opta have calculated who is most likely to win the league, depending on Sunday's results

Opta have calculated who is most likely to win the league, depending on Sunday’s results 

The statistics agency have done the maths and have calculated which side will stand the best chance of being crowned champions depending on how results go this weekend. 

First up comes Liverpool’s game against Brighton at Anfield. While the Reds come into this match off the back of a 4-3 defeat by Man City in the FA Cup, they are unbeaten in the Premier League since their 3-1 loss to Arsenal on February 4. 

Opta have given Klopp’s side a 60.7 per cent chance of winning against Roberto De Zerbi’s side on Sunday – despite the Seagulls going unbeaten at Anfield in their last three away matches. 

If Liverpool beat Brighton… 

So, if Liverpool and Man City both win, Pep Guardiola’s side are being backed at favourites by Opta to retain their title. They have a 54 per cent chance of winning the Premier League should both sides win.  

If Arsenal and City draw and Liverpool win on Sunday, then Opta believes Klopp’s side will be favourites to win the league, with a 47 per cent chance of hoisting the Premier League title.

Liverpool will also remain the favourites to be crowned champions even if Arsenal beat City away from home. If such eventuality materialises, Liverpool have been handed a 44 per cent chance of being crowned champions, with the Gunners being backed at 36 per cent. 

Opta state that if Liverpool and Man City win, Guardiola's side have the greatest chance of winning the league

Opta state that if Liverpool and Man City win, Guardiola’s side have the greatest chance of winning the league

Jurgen Klopp's side are being backed to win the title if Man City draw and Liverpool win

Jurgen Klopp’s side are being backed to win the title if Man City draw and Liverpool win

If Liverpool draw to Brighton… 

Liverpool have in three of their last five league meetings against Brighton at Anfield, so there remains a good chance this game could end in a stalemate. 

The Reds have struggled with a raft of injuries so far this season with Ibrahima Konate, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Curtis Jones all being sidelined this season. 

They were dealt another injury blow during the international break, with Andy Robertson limping off the field during Scotland’s friendly against Northern Ireland. The Reds are hopeful that he has avoided serious injury. 

But if Liverpool draw and City win, the probability of Guardiola’s side winning the League title will shoot up to 65 per cent, making them overwhelming favourites.

If Liverpool draw and Arsenal and City draw, Guardiola's side are the most likely to be crowned champions, but if Arteta's side win they'll be the favourites to win

If Liverpool draw and Arsenal and City draw, Guardiola’s side are the most likely to be crowned champions, but if Arteta’s side win they’ll be the favourites to win

If Liverpool lose and Arsenal win, Opta say the Gunners have a 45 per cent chance of winning the title

If Liverpool lose and Arsenal win, Opta say the Gunners have a 45 per cent chance of winning the title 

The stats say that they’ll stay favourites to win the league if they draw against Arsenal but the Gunners’ probability of winning the league would rise to 25 per cent. 

And should Arsenal win and Liverpool draw, the Gunners will then take a two-point lead at the top of the league and become the front-runners to win the Premier League title. 

If Liverpool lose to Brighton… 

Liverpool have only lost twice in the Premier League this season but if they concede their third defeat of the campaign to Brighton on Sunday, Arsenal and City can both take advantage. 

Defeats for both Liverpool and Arsenal would put the Cityzen’s in the running to win the Premier League and give them a 70 per cent chance of retaining the league title.  

If Liverpool lose, Opta say City have a 70 per cent chance to win the Premier League if they beat Arsenal. But if the Gunners win, Arteta's side will become the favourites

If Liverpool lose, Opta say City have a 70 per cent chance to win the Premier League if they beat Arsenal. But if the Gunners win, Arteta’s side will become the favourites

Man City have lost to Arsenal only once in their last 10 meetings but sit third in the title race

Man City have lost to Arsenal only once in their last 10 meetings but sit third in the title race

While Guardiola noted the importance of Sunday’s match, City have lost to Arsenal just once in their last 10 matches. But Mikel Arteta’s side are firing at the moment, having gone undefeated in their last eight league games, having also beaten Guardiola’s side this season already. 

Should Arsenal win and Liverpool lose, they’ll take the lead at the top of the table and, according to Opta, will have a 49 per cent chance of winning the title, with City taking a 30 per cent chance.  



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